English: Global CO₂ emissions and probabilistic temperature outcomes of government announcements associated with the lead up to the Paris climate conference. (a) Global CO₂ emissions from energy and industry (includes CO₂ emissions from all fossil fuel production and use and industrial processes such as cement manufacture that also produce CO₂ as a byproduct) for emissions pathways following no policy, current policy, meeting the governments’ announcements with constant country decarbonization rates past 2030, and meeting the governments’ announcements with higher rates of decarbonization past 2030. INDCs refer to Intended Nationally Determined Contributions which is the term used for the governments’ announced actions in the lead up to Paris. (b) Likelihoods of different levels of increase in global mean surface temperature during the 21st century relative to preindustrial levels for the four scenarios. Although (a) shows only CO₂ emissions from energy and industry, temperature outcomes are based on the full suite of GHG, aerosol, and short-lived species emissions across the full set of human activities and physical Earth systems.